{"id":12715,"date":"2026-05-01T12:56:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T19:56:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/?post_type=document&p=12715"},"modified":"2026-05-01T13:00:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T20:00:11","slug":"ca-gov-election-0326","status":"publish","type":"document","link":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/document\/ca-gov-election-0326\/","title":{"rendered":"CA Gov Election 0326"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Voting Strategy for the Jungle Primary<\/h3>\n
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California's \"Top-Two\" Primary Problem<\/strong><\/span>
\nCalifornia uses a top-two primary system where all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party, and only the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. The two Republican frontrunners enjoy more consolidated support from their base than their Democratic counterparts, who risk fragmenting the Democratic vote.<\/span>
\nWith the current field, there's a 27% chance of a Republican faceoff in November, according to statistical modeling by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Core Strategic Principle: Vote Consolidation<\/strong><\/span>
\nThe math is simple \u2014 with multiple Democrats splitting ~60%+ of the vote and 2 Republicans splitting ~35-40%, the danger isn't a lack of Democratic support overall. It's that Democratic votes get diluted across too many candidates while Republican votes are more concentrated.<\/span>
\nThe optimal strategy for a Democratic voter is:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Vote for the Democrat most likely to finish in the top two<\/strong><\/span>
    \nDon't vote your \"favorite\" \u2014 vote for the Democrat with the best realistic chance of placing 1st or 2nd statewide. Right now, the leading Democrats in the race are Tom Steyer, Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa. Steyer has spent over $132 million, dwarfing all rivals, while Mahan raised $13 million and Porter $2.8 million. Watch the final polls in mid-May to identify who is polling strongest.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Ignore candidates with no viable path<\/strong><\/span>
    \nThe California Democratic Party has called for those without a \"viable path\" to step aside \u2014 voters should apply the same logic to their ballots. A vote for a long-shot Democrat is effectively a vote that doesn't help consolidate the field.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Monitor the race closely before June 2<\/strong><\/span>
    \nTrump endorsed Steve Hilton, which may actually help Democrats \u2014 some Bianco supporters could shift to Hilton, concentrating the Republican vote behind one candidate and making it more likely a Democrat finishes second. Keep an eye on post-debate polling after the CNN debate on May 5 to see which Democrat is surging.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Bottom Line<\/strong><\/span>
    \nThe single most effective thing a Democratic primary voter can do is rally behind whichever one or two Democrats are polling strongest in the final weeks rather than splitting between multiple candidates. Think of it less as a primary choice and more as a strategic placement \u2014 you want to ensure at least one Democrat clears the top-two threshold.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"footnotes":""},"document_category":[115,111],"document_tag":[],"class_list":["post-12715","document","type-document","status-publish","hentry","document_category-elections","document_category-imdc-documents","post"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/document\/12715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/document"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/document"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12715"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/document\/12715\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12718,"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/document\/12715\/revisions\/12718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"document_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/document_category?post=12715"},{"taxonomy":"document_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inlandmendodems.org\/WP\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/document_tag?post=12715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}